In a recent exchange, Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg appeared on a collision course, with the Twitter owner seemingly challenging the Facebook CEO to a fight. This followed a tweet inquiring about Musk’s thoughts on Zuckerberg’s upcoming Twitter rival, Instagram Threads.
In an unexpected turn of events, Instagram Threads is set to launch tonight, a day ahead of schedule. While initially deemed a mere Twitter competitor, underestimating the potential impact of this new app would be a mistake. In fact, it has the potential to surpass Twitter and emerge as a formidable rival, possibly even dethroning it altogether.
While it may appear overly dramatic to predict the demise of Twitter, especially considering Elon Musk’s controversial actions aimed at reducing its user base, the platform has proven resilient and remains in existence.
Undoubtedly, the previous week has been challenging for Twitter, as Elon Musk highlighted the implementation of rate limits that limit users’ daily view count. If Instagram Threads does indeed end Twitter, it would signify not just Zuckerberg capitalizing on Twitter’s tumultuous state, but also a reflection on the events and circumstances that led us to this point.
Instagram Threads potentially hold the power to bring about the end of Twitter, and this can be attributed to three specific reasons:
1. Expectations Are Everything
One major challenge for Twitter lies in the unpredictable nature of its operations. The company’s decision-making appears to be heavily influenced by Elon Musk’s whims, leaving users uncertain about what to expect. Furthermore, the explanations provided for these changes often lack coherence, adding to the confusion surrounding Twitter’s direction.
One significant factor driving users away from Twitter and towards alternative platforms is their discontent with Elon Musk’s decisions and the resulting chaos. People yearn for stability and certainty, which Twitter currently lacks, contributing to the migration toward other platforms.
While Instagram Threads may offer its own challenges, one notable concern can be observed in the privacy nutrition label found in the iOS App Store. Upon inspection, it becomes evident that Instagram Threads collects a comprehensive range of user data, much like Instagram or Facebook. It appears that during the app submission process, the form was completed with a “Select All” approach, resulting in extensive data collection.
Indeed, this aligns with expectations considering that Instagram and its parent company, Meta, are known for their approach of showcasing tailored ads based on user preferences. Given the nature of the platform, privacy might not be a primary focus of Instagram Threads.
Let me be clear—I don’t aim to defend Facebook, but I do believe there’s merit in a company being transparent about its identity and goals. Having a clear understanding of what to anticipate can provide a sense of certainty, even if the intentions may not align with everyone’s preferences.
Furthermore, what’s crucial is that if you find Instagram Threads to be appealing, you can reasonably expect its functionality to remain consistent for the foreseeable future. While Meta will undoubtedly continue refining the product and occasionally introduce changes that may not align with everyone’s preferences, overall, you can have confidence in knowing what to anticipate. In essence, you will clearly understand what you’re signing up for with Instagram Threads.
2. The Advantage of Scale
One major obstacle for individuals seeking alternatives to Musk-owned Twitter is the absence of a substantial network effect in nearly every other platform. Mastodon, Bluesky, and Post.news, among others, simply lack the large user base found on Twitter.
If one of the key aspects you appreciated about Twitter was the presence of all the individuals you desired to hear from, it’s important to note that this might not hold true for all the other available options. While some have turned to Mastodon or Post.news, many users still remain on Twitter, which continues to boast a significantly larger user base compared to its alternatives.
Unlike other alternatives, Instagram Threads doesn’t face the challenge of lacking a substantial user base. It leverages Instagram’s expansive social graph, benefiting from the platform’s staggering two billion monthly active users. This is a significant advantage when compared to Twitter, which has approximately 400 million users. The vast reach and engagement of Instagram make Instagram Threads a compelling proposition.
Moreover, thanks to Instagram’s seamless integration, creating an account on Instagram Threads using your Instagram profile is a breeze. In contrast, platforms like Mastodon require a more involved onboarding process that many people may find daunting. As a result, it’s not far-fetched to anticipate that Instagram Threads could amass a user base surpassing that of Twitter and its competitors combined in a relatively short period. The accessibility and simplicity of joining Instagram Threads via Instagram provide a significant advantage in terms of user adoption.
3. The Advertiser-Friendly Advantage
One of Twitter’s primary challenges stems from its substantial debt in relation to the revenue it generates. To sustain profitability, Twitter heavily relies on advertisers as its primary source of income.
In an effort to regain advertiser trust after experiencing a decline following the Musk acquisition, Twitter has implemented measures to become more advertiser-friendly. Appointing Linda Yaccarino as the new CEO was a significant move in the right direction, yet uncertainties persist among many brands regarding Twitter’s overall safety. Further action may be required to alleviate these concerns fully.
Conversely, when it comes to fostering relationships with brands and advertisers, few companies can rival the expertise of Instagram or Meta. Convincing advertisers to redirect their planned budget from Twitter to Instagram Threads may require minimal effort, given the impressive track record these platforms have in captivating the advertising industry.
In fact, it appears that a relatively modest shift in dynamics could deliver a decisive blow to Twitter. With its limited revenue generation from charging users $8 a month for a blue check mark and its inability to sustain further losses in ad revenue, Twitter finds itself in a precarious position. All things considered, this situation seems far from an equitable competition, tipping the scales in favor of alternative platforms like Instagram Threads.
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